Market trends: real estate growth will continue

From left to right: Justin Thibaut, Denny Grimes, Randy Thibaut. COURTESY PHOTO

Those who think last year’s extraordinarily bullish real estate market simply can’t last – that a significant decline is inevitable, and sooner rather than later – are probably wrong this year, according to three of the most savvy market analysts of the region.

On the contrary, the residential (new and existing homes), commercial and land sales markets in Collier, Lee and now Charlotte counties will increase not only in size but in value and cost for the remainder of the year, according to LSI’s expert analysts. The companies, which backed up their promising predictions with a detailed databook that they share as a service, across the industry.

“The evolution of the market has been incredible since last year,” noted Randy Thibaut, founder and senior broker at LSI, speaking last week to nearly 1,000 real estate professionals from across the region. They came together at LSI’s semi-annual, signature event, Spring 2022 Market Trends, held at the Calooosa Sound Convention Center, adjacent to the Luminary Hotel and restaurants overlooking the Caloosahatchee River in downtown. city ​​of Fort Myers.

There's a lot of warehouse construction going on in Collier and Lee counties, and it's starting to happen in Charlotte County, Justin Thibaut said.  COURTESY PHOTO

There’s a lot of warehouse construction going on in Collier and Lee counties, and it’s starting to happen in Charlotte County, Justin Thibaut said. COURTESY PHOTO

“Permits are up almost 37% in Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties, so we’ve seen a further increase in new home construction,” Thibaut said. “We peaked at 25,000 permits this year, but it’s not a boom. A boom is 44,000 permits in 2005. But we are still in a very good market.

The picture is robust and promising, according to LSI analysts, not a booming market but a thriving and reliable market for the time being. Bargain hunting – hunting for bargains and bargains in residential, commercial and industrial real estate, as well as land sales and development, will be a “thrill”, as the downsides do not include a crash or a huge drop.

But Justin Thibaut, who recently took the helm of the company as president and chief executive, offered a characteristic caution to investors in the industrial sector.

“It’s really easy to get caught up in the fanfare of what’s happening in residential and commercial real estate in Southwest Florida,” he said, “but headlines don’t translate necessarily by all who work and do business in the community.”

In industrial real estate, for example, “the large distribution companies are arriving and we hear about increasingly large transactions. The problem is that the assets are not available for purchase. The volume of sales in the industrial world decreases, because there is nothing to buy, which brings waves of new deliveries to the market. »

The result? “There’s a lot of (warehouse) construction going on in Collier and Lee, and it’s starting to happen in Charlotte County – which is probably next on the map for big retail. Warehouse distribution.

Denny Grimes, Founder and Chairman of Denny Grimes & Co., has joined LSI analysts as an existing home sales expert. The market will continue to be good, but not crazy, he hinted to the packed house.

“2021 was a record that will never be repeated in terms of sales, price – it was a one-off or generational market. So you can’t compare 2022 to 2021, which is not going to repeat itself. And that’s the good news.

In residential real estate, Mr. Grimes underlined: “We don’t have a demand problem. People want to live in southwest Florida, he says, unlike many other places. The problem is therefore not the demand, but the cost.

“We are becoming much less affordable. The good news for Southwest Florida is this: although we are more expensive, there are plenty of people who can afford it. And they will come. And our market in 2022 will be great, but not as great as in 2021.”

Like a stunt couple who make it look like it’s easy to change seats at top speed, Randy Thibaut and his son Justin swapped places in the driver’s seat at LSI Companies earlier this year, then slid in last week’s Spring 2022 Market Trends event as gently as warmly. Butter.

Randy founded the original company a few decades ago. Justin came to work with his father in 2016 after graduating from the University of Florida School of Construction Management and working in the nuclear power and petroleum industries for a few years. Now Justin has stepped in as President and CEO, with Randy continuing as Founder and Principal Broker.

This may seem like just another business development, except for one factor: many people think they are better analysts of real estate development and trends in the area than most. Or everything.

The good news, from the perspective of their fans, is this: they share what they know.

As at every Market Trends event, this evening, dubbed “The Thrill of the Chase” after good real estate deals, was accompanied by a databook for participants full of information, a relative wealth of research likely to improve understanding construction. businesses and developers, project buyers or sellers, industrial and commercial real estate investors and those simply looking to buy or sell a home.

Courtesy of LSI Companies, all of this can be found at data-book-2022/.

You can see, for example, general information such as unemployment rates in each county, or more specific data, including diesel fuel costs, factory shapes of aluminum or copper and brass, or steel products.

You can see the costs for lumber and plywood, gypsum products, ready-mixed concrete, and paving mixes.

You can see the number of residence permits issued not only by county, but also by builder, for single-family homes, multi-family units, and apartments.

You can see the number of new home constructions for single-detached and multi-family homes listed by city, unincorporated area, or region. You can see who got the permits by builder and by community.

You can see median sale prices for communities, available stock, and the average time in days that stock remains on the market.

Knowledge is not just power, it can be freedom.

Matt Walsh, founding editor and CEO of Business Observer, which usually features Market Trends events, attributed the robust and promising market to “freedom” at a time when there is a lot of bad news and restrictive policies: “ inflation, rebuilding back, COVID mandates, the southern border crisis…but we’re lucky because we live in the freest state in the United States,” he said.

“When you have freedom, good things happen. No matter what, Florida will be fine…we’ve weathered the 2020-2021 pandemic better than anyone!

Whether that’s true or not, the real estate reality is much better than thought at the start of the decade, and it will continue to be better for the foreseeable future this year, Randy Thibaut concluded.

The reason is simple. “We have people coming here with money!” ¦

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